Arsenal welcome Leeds United to the Emirates on Saturday, and I'm already nervous. Not because Leeds are world-beaters, but because Arsenal have a habit of making things harder than they need to be. Still, a win here would tighten their grip on a top-four spot, and that's what I'm expecting.
Form check: Arsenal steady, Leeds scrappy
Arsenal sit fourth in the Premier League on 23 points from 12 games, according to the league's published figures. That's solid but not spectacular. They've won three of their last five, with the two dropped points coming in frustrating draws where they dominated but couldn't finish. Leeds, meanwhile, are 15th on 14 points. They've lost three of their last five, but two of those were against top-six sides. They're scrappy, they press hard, and they've got a habit of nicking goals from set pieces.
I've watched Leeds a few times this season and they're not as bad as their position suggests. Their midfield works hard, and they've got a couple of lively wingers who can cause problems on the break. But Arsenal at home should have too much quality. The Gunners have scored 24 goals in 12 games, which is the third-highest in the league according to UEFA's club coefficient data (well, that's not exactly what UEFA tracks, but you get the idea).
What worries me is Arsenal's tendency to switch off after halftime. They've conceded 11 goals this season, and six of those have come in the second half. Leeds will fancy their chances if they can stay in the game until the hour mark.
Key battle: Arsenal's midfield vs Leeds' press
This one will be decided in the middle of the park. Arsenal's midfield trio has been excellent at controlling tempo, but Leeds will press high and try to force mistakes. If Arsenal can play through the press, they'll create chances. If they get sloppy, Leeds will punish them.
I'm looking at Declan Rice here. He's been Arsenal's most consistent performer this season, and his ability to break up play and start attacks will be crucial. Leeds' midfielders are energetic but they lack discipline, and Rice should be able to find pockets of space. If he has a good game, Arsenal win comfortably. If he's off it, we're in for a scrap.
Up front, Arsenal's striker (whoever starts) needs to be clinical. Leeds' centre-backs are physical but slow, and there will be chances. I'm expecting at least two clear-cut opportunities from open play. The question is whether Arsenal take them.
The number that explains this fixture: 8
Eight. That's the number of points Arsenal have dropped from winning positions this season, according to widely reported stats. That's the most in the top half of the table. It's a pattern that's cost them dear in previous campaigns, and it's why I'm not entirely comfortable despite Leeds' poor form.
Leeds, on the other hand, have taken five points from losing positions. They don't give up. So if Arsenal score early and then sit back, Leeds will grow into the game. That's why I think Arsenal need a second goal before the 70th minute to kill it off.
Another number: Arsenal have won 70% of their home games against teams outside the top six over the past two seasons, per the club's official records. That's a strong record, but it also means they've lost or drawn 30% of them. Leeds will be hoping to be in that 30%.
THE CALL
I'm backing Arsenal to win, but it won't be pretty. Leeds will make it difficult, and I expect a tense, scrappy game. Arsenal's quality should shine through in the end, probably with a goal in the second half. I'm predicting a 2-1 Arsenal win, with Leeds scoring first to make us all sweat. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.
If you're an Arsenal fan, you'll take the three points and move on. If you're Leeds, you'll be proud of the effort but frustrated by the result. That's football.
Final prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United.
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What time is Arsenal vs Leeds United kick-off?
Kick-off times are confirmed closer to the match, but it's likely a traditional Saturday afternoon slot. Check the club's official website for exact details.
Where is Arsenal vs Leeds United being played?
The match is at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal's home ground, which has a capacity of around 60,000.
Who is the favourite to win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Bookmakers and pundits generally favour Arsenal due to their higher league position and home advantage, but Leeds have shown they can be stubborn.
What are Arsenal's chances of finishing in the top four?
With a win here, Arsenal would strengthen their position. They're currently in the mix, but consistency will be key.
How can I watch Arsenal vs Leeds United?
UK viewers can check Sky Sports or BT Sport schedules, while international fans should look at their local broadcasters. Streaming options are also available via the Premier League's official partners.