Milan or Inter: who actually owns this derby?

I've got a drawer full of Milan shirts I can't fit into and a genuine, irrational hatred of derby week. And here we are again. Milan vs Inter, Serie A, and half the internet has already decided how it ends. I haven't. But I will by the bottom of this page, loudly, because that's the deal.

Head-to-head: the derby loves a draw and it drives me up the wall

Here's the thing about this fixture — it's rarely a basketball game. According to the league's published records, the two clubs have shared the same stadium since 1947, and the derby has produced more than its share of tight, cagey, one-goal nonsense. The San Siro holds around 75,000 when it's full, and when it's full for this one the away end is basically a wall of noise.

What the head-to-head numbers tell me is that form goes out the window. Inter have had the better of it in recent seasons — I'd say roughly two-thirds of the recent league meetings have gone their way, though I'm not going to pretend I've counted every one. The games I remember are the 1-0s and the 2-1s, the ones decided by a deflection or a set piece. Not the 4-3s.

Milan or Inter: who actually owns this derby?

Milan fans will tell you the derby is a coin flip. Inter fans will tell you it's a formality. Both are lying, which is what makes it fun.

Form check: one of these sides looks like it's already on the beach

Goal.com's preview headlines have Milan's unbeaten run ending — that's their call, not mine. And I get the logic. Milan have been grinding results rather than dominating, which is fine until it isn't. A run of narrow wins can paper over a midfield that gets overrun, and Inter are exactly the side that will find that seam.

Pundits expect Inter to be the more fluent side going forward. The wide areas are where I'd worry if I were a Milan fan — Inter's wing-backs push so high they practically live in the opposition box. Milan's full-backs are good going forward but they leave gaps, and gaps against Inter are how you concede two in ten minutes.

That said, Milan at home in this fixture is a different animal. The crowd drags them up a level. It's the one game where I'll forgive a scrappy 1-1 because the performance had bite.

Tactical matchup: midfield spoils, and a set-piece decides it

Inter want to control the ball and pin you back. Milan want to counter and hit you on the break. Both plans work better when the other team is chasing. So expect a first half of chess, a second half of chaos.

The key duel is in the middle. If Milan's midfield can't get a foot on it, Inter will just camp in their half. If Milan can win second balls, the counter is on. I'd love to see Milan press higher and force mistakes, but I suspect they'll sit deep and hope for a worldie on the break.

Set pieces. That's where this game gets settled. Inter are big and well-drilled from corners. Milan are not. If I'm picking one thing to decide it, it's a near-post flick and a scramble.

THE CALL: I'm backing the draw, and I'll take the abuse

Here's my verdict, and I'm committing: Milan 1-1 Inter. A scrappy, annoying, brilliant-in-places draw that neither set of fans will be happy with. The pundits calling for Inter to win are probably right on the balance of play, but derbies don't care about balance. Milan find a way at home. Inter find a way to not lose. That's a point each and a lot of shouting on the radio.

And if you're asking me to pick a side to actually win the thing — I'd rather not, because I've been burned too many times. But I'll say this: Inter look the more complete team, and if anyone wins it, it's them. I just don't think they will.

So there's my shout: Milan 1-1 Inter. Come at me.

Who has the better recent derby record?

Inter have generally had the edge in league meetings over the last few seasons, but the games themselves have been tight and low-scoring more often than not.

What's the atmosphere like at the San Siro for this fixture?

Loud, hostile and split down the middle. The shared stadium means both sets of fans are in the same building, which makes for a unique and often tense night.

Which team is in better form going into the derby?

Inter look the more fluent side according to most previews, while Milan have been grinding out results. Form tends to matter less in this fixture, though.

What's the key tactical battle?

Midfield control and set pieces. Inter's wing-backs push high, so Milan will need to win second balls and defend corners better than they usually do.

Is a draw a good bet?

Derbies at the San Siro have a habit of finishing level. It's not the most exciting call, but it's often the sensible one.