Three WSL titles on the spin for Chelsea, according to the record books, and Manchester City are still trying to work out how to stop the blue machine. This weekend they get another crack. I've watched enough of these two to know it'll be tight, scrappy in midfield, and probably decided by one moment of magic. But I'm picking a side, and I'm not sitting on the fence.
The player who decides it: Bunny Shaw turns big games into her personal playground
If City are going to take anything from this, it's going through Bunny Shaw. She's the sort of striker who doesn't need three chances; give her half a yard and she'll bury it. Chelsea's back line is good, but Shaw's movement in the box is a nightmare for anyone. I fancy her to score. And if she does, City have a real shot.
On the other side, Chelsea's midfield is where they win these games. They choke you, then break. It's not always pretty, but it works. City need to find a way through that or Shaw will be feeding on scraps.
Tactical matchup: City's press vs Chelsea's control
City will press high. That's their game. But Chelsea are brilliant at playing through it, especially at home. The key is whether City's midfield can stay compact and stop the quick switches. If they get stretched, Chelsea will pick them apart. If they stay disciplined, it's a grind.
I've seen City dominate these games and still lose. That's the worry. Chelsea have this knack of scoring at the worst possible time for the opposition. It's annoying, but it's a skill.
Head-to-head record: Chelsea own this fixture
Historically, Chelsea have had the edge. Since the WSL went to 12 teams in 2019-20, per the league's published figures, Chelsea have finished above City in every season. That's not a coincidence. They know how to win these head-to-heads. City have beaten them, sure, but not often enough. And at Kingsmeadow, Chelsea are a different beast.
City fans will tell you they're due a win. Maybe. But I've heard that before.
Key battle: Sam Kerr vs City's centre-backs
If Sam Kerr starts, City's defenders are in for a long afternoon. She's relentless. The way she attacks crosses is world-class. City need to cut off the supply. If they don't, Kerr will score. Simple as that. And that's before you think about Chelsea's runners from midfield.
City's full-backs like to push on, which leaves space in behind. Chelsea will target that. It's a classic trade-off. City have to be brave but not stupid.
THE CALL: Chelsea edge it in a tight one
I'm going Chelsea. They're at home, they've got the better squad depth, and they know how to win these games. City will make it hard, and Shaw will cause problems, but I think Chelsea's midfield control and Kerr's finishing will be the difference. Pundits expect a close game, and I agree. But my money is on the champions. Chelsea 2-1 Manchester City. That's my call, and I'm sticking to it.
If you disagree, fair enough. But I've seen this movie before. Chelsea find a way. City huff and puff. And the points stay in London.
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Chelsea have generally had the upper hand in recent seasons, finishing above City in the league every year since the WSL expanded to 12 teams. That trend makes them slight favourites in my book.
Will Bunny Shaw score?
She's City's main threat and has a habit of scoring in big games. I wouldn't bet against her finding the net, even against a solid Chelsea defence.
Where is the match being played?
It's at Chelsea's home ground, Kingsmeadow. That gives them an extra edge, as their home record is strong.
What's the key tactical battle?
City's high press against Chelsea's ability to play through it. If City can't win the ball high, Chelsea will control the game.
Who is the player to watch?
For me, it's Sam Kerr. Her movement and finishing can unlock any defence, and City's back line will have their hands full.