Everton vs Tottenham. A fixture that used to feel like a proper old-school scrap and now feels like two teams trying to work out what they are. I'm backing Spurs to nick it, but it won't be pretty. And yes, I'm fully aware that's the least spicy take in the world. Let me explain.
Spurs have had the upper hand, but Goodison does funny things
Widely reported stats have Tottenham winning the majority of recent meetings, including a 2-0 at Goodison a couple of seasons back. Everton's last home win over Spurs feels like it was in a different decade (it was 2020, if you're counting). But form goes out the window when the crowd gets on your back. And Goodison's crowd gets on backs for fun. Spurs have dropped points there before when they've turned up expecting a stroll. I fancy them to edge it, but don't expect a clean sheet.
Only four teams have conceded more at home than Everton this season
That's the stat that jumps out. According to the league's published figures, Everton have shipped 14 goals at Goodison in this campaign – only Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich have leaked more on their own patch. Spurs, meanwhile, have scored in every away game except one. That's a recipe for goals. And for Everton fans, it's a recipe for another afternoon of staring at the floor.
Spurs are stuttering, Everton are grinding
Spurs have won two of their last six in the league – not great, not terrible. Everton have lost just once in five at home. So why am I backing Spurs? Because Everton's home form is built on draws, not wins. And Spurs have too much firepower to be held to a point. Pundits expect a tight game, and I agree. But tight games usually go the way of the team with the better finishers. That's Spurs.
Garnacho is the one who decides this
If he starts, that is. Reports suggest he's been nursing a knock, but if he's fit, he's the player Everton's full-backs will hate. He's direct, he's quick, and he's got a shot on him. He's also partial to a dive and a moan, which is why I'm backing him to get carded. If he doesn't start, Spurs still have enough. But Garnacho is the difference between a comfortable win and a scrap. And I fancy him to be involved in the goals either way.
THE CALL
I'm calling it: Everton 1-2 Tottenham. Spurs will dominate possession, Everton will have a spell, and Spurs will nick it late. It's the most Spursy thing possible: a scrappy win that convinces nobody but keeps the points ticking over. And for Everton fans, it's another Saturday of wondering why they bother. If you're on FPL, captain a Spurs attacker. If you're an Everton fan, maybe don't watch.
Prediction: Everton 1-2 Tottenham.
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Spurs are the slight favourites with the bookies, and I agree. Everton's home record is draw-heavy, and Spurs have more quality in the final third. But it's not a game I'd lump on. It'll be tight.
What's Everton's home record like this season?
They've only lost once at Goodison, but they've drawn too many. They've conceded 14 at home, which is among the worst in the league. So they're not easy to beat, but they're not exactly watertight either.
Will Garnacho start for Everton?
It's up in the air. He's been carrying a knock, and the manager might not risk him. If he does start, he's the one Spurs need to watch. If he doesn't, Everton lose a lot of their threat on the break.
How many goals have Spurs scored away from home?
They've scored in nearly every away game this season. Only one blank on the road. That's a decent record, and it's why I fancy them to score at Goodison.
Is this a good game for FPL?
I'd look at Spurs attackers. Everton's defence has been leaky at home, and Spurs have the players to exploit that. But don't expect a clean sheet either way. It's not a game for defenders.